Thursday, September 15, 2005

My second Martini ... reply

martini_2olives said...
I guess it all boils down to we see what we want to see.

Depending on your party affiliation, you either see someone who has at least attempted to take some responsibility or someone who is using PR as a means to avoid responsibility.






BTW you can BUY these great SF Martini glasses! Made in SF by Asta Glass.

Dear Martini 2 Olives;


You are, of course, partially correct. And it is a good point, thank you for stating it. I often ask myself, "Am I simply looking at the data that supports my view point? Am I missing something because of ideological blinders?"

And, without context, it would seem I'm being churlish or childish. "I don't care if he DOES claim he is responsible! I'm going to hold my breath until he also admits he has made mistakes and resigns!"

But Context and historical actions MUST be taken into consideration. Especially with this president where we HAVE the ability to look at his past behavior.

A number of good hearted people on the left said, "I'm going to give this president the benefit of the doubt on his response to 9/11. He couldn't have known! We weren't in those briefings. He was new to the job!" Then when we found out that there WAS data that said, "OBL determined to attack in US" and that there were multiple times that Condi and Bush KNEW that planes might be used to attack (most notably the G8 conference. I did a whole video with a jazzy spy music sound track about who told them and when they told them.) We found out that what he says and what actually happened were not the same.

Then there was the whole WMD debacle. Forged Yellowcake anyone?
So he and Condi say, Mushroom cloud! And it turns out that info is based on forged data. Data that they knew was discredited. So that is yet another instance where what they say, when looked into, is simply not true. And then, as I pointed out, Rummy's actions on Abu Ghraib, they talk about responsibility but there actions are not what a reasonable person would expect. Now we could get into a discussion of WHAT we should have expected, but to demote only ONE high level person for Abu Ghraib is really a sham.

In the famous words of the president "Fool me once shame on you, fool me twice...you can't be fooled again."

The days of giving them the benefit of the doubt are over.

I see the lies behind the "news" every day. I know how it is created and I know how the spin is developed, spun and placed. Yes people see what they want to see. That is why I will acknowledge bad things done by democrats. But I also know that Rove and the media love to set up false equivalencies so that the media can appear "fair".

I won’t spend a lot of time lashing out at Nagin and others at the local level, if you want to find a place to see them bashed I'm sure there are plenty of places for that.

Do you hear Rush Limbaugh and Sean Hannity saying, "You know we have to consider that Nagin was overwhelmed and did ask for help."?
No. They feel no obligation to see the other side of the story. I will at least acknowledge it, but maybe even that isn't necessary. Why? Because in this kind of discussion the right just doesn't care to consider the context. To them that would be admitting failure. You want to talk about seeing what you want to see, watch the clip of Hannity arguing with Shepard Smith, "But we have to put this in perspective..." Sean didn't want to see, didn't want to listen because it was practically impossible to see what he wanted to see in the face of images and a devastated man on the ground. But he did anyway.

And if they can scream at the left, “Yeah but you didn't give the president credit for saying ‘I'm responsible’”, they will. They use this tactic directed at the left all the time, yet it is never incumbent on them to do the same.

The fairness doctrine doesn't exist in the broadcast media anymore. The legit media clings to a structure of
"This side says this and then this side says that“ as a way to appear balanced. But if you have:
- multiple, full-time paid spokesperson (Hoover, Heritage, AEI, etc. etc. etc.)
- most of the "experts" on your payroll
- an army of people harassing the media every day for so called "liberal bias"
- bogus extreme cases developed for the express purpose of making less extreme positions seem fine.
It's not a fair game.

Now I don't want to say, "Mark my words!”, because you actually did (which was very nice of you, btw). But based on what we have already seen and based on experience with this administration, I expect to see the same crap in the reconstruction here as in the reconstruction of Iraq.

Watch for:
No-bid contracts
Work going to outsiders instead of the people in the region who could benefit from the jobs.
Lots of unaccountable missing money.
Cost plus contracts where a 3 dollar hammer costs 300 dollars.
Focus on getting oil going before people's lives (we have already seen that with a story about a hospital going with out power for 24 hours so that an oil refinery could get going first)

I even expect some covering up of real environmental data like the EPA did on 9/11. "That air is fine to breathe!” Will become, “That sludge if just fine to play in!"

I think the media might do its job this time, but I'm sure that with each story that they run about corruption, incompetence and still horrific conditions, we will hear from that idiot Hannity, the sexual deviant O'Reilly and the drug addict Limbaugh that we aren't hearing about "The positive stories! All the schools that have been reopened! The families that have been reunited with their loved ones!"

I'm not against some happy stories from the zone, goodness knows we need some, but if you have 900 crappy stories to tell about shit that hasn't been fixed and contractors that are getting contracts because they know the president's college roommate and aren't really qualified for the job, One story about little Mary Sunshine getting a new bike, is just mathematically, percentage-wise wrong.

But Rush and Hannity will demand it because the just don't want to hear any bad news that can be attached to the president or FEMA (unless they can blame "Big Government"). They will talk about “The buses!” (Driven by whom? Evacuated women drivers, who left with there families?) They will repeat discredited info about who did what when. “She never asked for help!” And they will mischaracterize the role of the various agencies are whenever they can (as our very own dear Jim picked up on about FEMA).

5 Comments:

Jim said...

Spocko, first I would definitely agree with the statement: THIS ADMINSTRATION’S EXECUTION OF THE FUNCTIONS OF GOVERNMENT is BAD. I also agree that you have to look at the context. As for lies and who lied, apparently the Senate committee didn’t think Bush was lying about anything:

(http://www.opinionjournal.com/editorial/feature.html?id=110005342)
That aside- the government's response could have been better. It doesn't however, rise to the level of incompetence shown by the Louisiana government that didn’t even bother to try to execute their functions. If this were a criminal case Nagin and Blanco would be held criminally negligent for their actions, and Brown would have committed contributory negligence.

(http://www.iht.com/articles/2005/09/15/america/web.0915brown.php)

"Governor Blanco's communications director, Mr. Mann, said that she was frustrated that Mr. Brown and others at FEMA wanted itemized requests before acting. "It was like walking into an emergency room bleeding profusely and being expected to instruct the doctors how to treat you," he said."
This analogy shows the absolute lack of understanding of her responsibilities as governor. It’s more like you are in CHARGE of the ER and people walk in bleeding and you can't tell the other doctors how to help you get all these patients helped.

9:09 PM  
martini_2olives said...

BTW, those are sharp looking martini glasses, but I tend to focus my resources on the gin (Bombay Saphire) that goes on the inside. Also, I like to find blue cheese stuffed olives whenever available. Simply masterful.

And thank you for saying that I'm partially. I half-way appreciate it. :^)

A couple of thoughts to ponder during your next cocktail hour:

Regarding your statement: Then when we found out that there WAS data that said . . .

By that logic, we would have to make it illegal to use cars, have pre-processed foods, use a community water supply, transport via a railroad, fly commercial or private airplanes or another number of activities that we enjoy. There have been threats regarding each of those areas of our lives. However there hasn't been any specific information regarding time and date. There wasn't any intel that stated a specific threat and by specific I mean date, time, location, flight numbers, and names.

I find it interesting that the same people that think the President should have known about the 9/11 attacks are often (not always) the same people who hate the limiting of freedoms from the Patriot Act. To me, this simmers down to: You cannot have it both ways. People expect President Bush to take any sort of threat as credible and not take any chances. So he does. He trusts information that others relied on also and forces the issue with Iraq. And then NOW it is made to appear that he was is a blood thirsty war monger. It is my opinion that he has to either do all that he can to protect us and we have to deal with the consequences, or we need to be understanding if something slips through.


Another thought, I'll make you a deal, I won't attribute the thoughts and actions of Michael Moore to you if I get to not be lumped in with Sean INSannity or Rush. I'll even sweeten the deal and I won't bring up Howard Dean either.

Also, I think it unfair to single out this administration as one that is full of cronyism and preferential treatment. Focusing on the no-bid contracts like Halliburton seems like trying to find fault at any cost (which if I'm not mistaken, Halliburton won the no-bid contract under the Clinton administration). My point being, poor management and abuses of power and mistakes seem to very easily cross party lines, industry, ethnicity, social stature, or income.

If think that the current government isn't perfect, I agree with you. But I also think that it is the best system in the world. But then again I get misty-eyed sometimes when I sing the national anthem. I just like to see civil debate, a geniune interest in undertanding, an attitude of working for the good of all, with a little dose of sarcasm and cynicism.

Well I'm off to enjoy a cocktail. All of these photos of dry martinis makes me thirsty.

and it sure is easy to start rambling here isn't it?

12:15 PM  
spocko said...

THREE MARTINI'S!!!
Okay I won't lump you in with Rush and Sean. Just by the very fact that you are here reading this blog means your IQ is clearly above their room temperature IQ of their rabid listeners.
And I definitely agree that poor management and abuses of power and mistakes seem to very easily cross party lines, industry, ethnicity, social stature, or income. That is why I am so glad to hear that a team of auditors will be looking over the reconstruction of the Gulf Coast. If you are looking for me to give Bush credit for a good part of his speech there it is. Well done! (Now if we could only find what happened to the almost 9 billion that Bremer couldn’t account for…)
We must stay on top of ALL politicians when it comes to abuses of power. I’m a huge fan of Elliot Spitzer, but when he is elected governor he should have people keeping track of HIS spending too!

By that logic, we would have to make it illegal to use cars, have preprocessed foods, use a community water supply, transport via a railroad, fly commercial or private airplanes or another number of activities that we enjoy. There have been threats regarding each of those areas of our lives. However there hasn't been any specific information regarding time and date. There wasn't any intel that stated a specific threat and by specific I mean date, time, location, flight numbers, and names.

Damn M2O, that talking point really worked on you. That makes me sad. “There wasn't any intel that stated a specific threat and by specific I mean date, time, location, flight numbers, and names.” Rarely is the information that specific. What would be the fun of that? It would be too EASY. Let me do a comparison for you. Right around Y2K there was a lot of “chatter” that weapons and explosives were being moved for an al Qaeda attack. Here is an interview Richard Clarke did with L. King comparing what you do with various kinds of intelligence and the results.

>>>(From R. Clarke's interview with L. King:)
CLARKE: Well, we'll never know. But let me compare 9/11 and the period immediately before it to the millennium rollover and the period immediately before that. In December, 1999, we received intelligence reports that there were going to be major al Qaeda attacks. President Clinton asked his national security adviser Sandy Berger to hold daily meetings with the attorney general, the FBI director, the CIA director and stop the attacks. And every day they went back from the White House to the FBI, to the Justice Department, to the CIA and they shook the trees to find out if there was any information. You know, when you know the United States is going to be attacked, the top people in the United States government ought to be working hands-on to prevent it and working together.

Now, contrast that with what happened in the summer of 2001, when we even had more clear indications that there was going to be an attack. Did the president ask for daily meetings of his team to try to stop the attack? Did Condi Rice hold meetings of her counterparts to try to stop the attack? No.

And if she had, if the FBI director and the attorney general had gone back day after day to their department to the White House, what would they have shaken loose? We now know from testimony before the Commission that buried in the FBI was the fact that two of the hijackers had entered the United States. Now, if that information had been able to be shaken loose by the FBI director and the attorney general in response to daily meetings with the White House, if we had known that those two -- if the attorney general had known, if the FBI director had known, that those two were in the United States, Larry, I believe we could have caught those two.<<<
_____

Ahhh. Logic. My favorite topic. (not really, my favorite topic is me!) Did you read or hear about the book Fear? Have you read and of John Allen Paulos's books like a Mathematician Reads the Newspaper? They both had some interesting sections that talked about probability of death by various causes and the actual causes of most deaths.

Why are people more afraid of death in an airplane when it is statistically far safer than driving?
There are a lot of issues with psychological factors and control issues. But also people are bad at math! Specifically, probability. We like to use the old saw "the chances of being struck by lightening" to "dying in a terrorist attack" line when talking about something that is improbable. The funny thing is that in some places your chances of being struck by lighting are very high. For example on top of a tall building in a storm. And lightening DOES strike in the same place twice. Watch a show about lightening rods.

I bring this up because 9/11 (and Hurricane K to some extent) really had to do with "the preponderance of evidence" as well as the Quality of the information. During my reading about the CIA and the NSA I've found lots of mistakes they have made, one that isn't often talked about is the mistakes that are made due to the incorrect interpretation of the data that is presented or the cherry picking of data.

Regarding all the threats we have to face, it is a question of type of intelligence, confidence factor in the sources, the credibility of the sources and probability of an act happening based on the judgment of the analyst and the history of the groups under surveillance .
So it wasn't just one memo. It wasn't just a few people in a room spit-balling ideas. Multiple people told them multiple ways from numerous credible sources. Watch my video, I did a bunch of research for it and was amazed at what I found. Puntin’s head of security told the president what to look out for. These aren’t the Lone Gunmen sitting in a room thinking up worst case scenarios.

I DO know that the job of protecting America is hard and I do understand that the president needs to consider going after lots of cases that might have seemed tenuous in other areas. But the case that Iraq as the next right step in fighting terrorism just doesn't follow the authentic evidence. The next most dangerous type of attack after 9/11 was subway/mass transit. Guess what? It happened. It didn’t happen in the US, and maybe that is because of some of the civil liberties we had taken away. Most likely it is because of the civil liberties of the non-combatants in Gitmo that were taken away. Don’t get me wrong, I think that people who are determined to kill innocents should be caught, tried and put away. Unfortunately there are people in Gitmo that don’t belong there. They were in the wrong place at the wrong time and some warlord got a bounty for turning them in. If you don’t think that some people were wrongly imprisoned ask, “If they all were bad people, why were some released?” Surely they wouldn’t release dangerous people back into the world?” That points out that maybe they were overzealous in their imprisonment.

So, to get back to evidence and what I should pay attention to. When the preponderance of evidence is high, credibility of the sources is good and the odds are against me, I want people to really pay attention. When it is the opposite, I won’t. For example I’m not too freaked out by my chance of getting Mad Cow disease. The odds are really, really high, and considering that I rarely eat beef they are even lower.

Again, I believe there are a vast number of hard working, smart people who really don't want our country to get blown up. I count several hundred of my readers from the intelligence community ( they mask their IP addresses, but I know they are reading me.). I honor their hard work. I get pissed off when their work is ignored, manipulated and deliberately misinterpreted. People like Douglas Feith created The Office of Special plans to see what they wanted to see (as you so wisely pointed out people often do.). And if they didn’t see what they wanted they kept looking until they did.

In Allison Hantschel's new book, "Special Plans, The blogs on Douglas Feith and the Faulty intelligence that led to war." she outlines how Feith and his civilian colleagues assembled a picture of the hypothetical conflict that relied almost exclusively on best-case scenarios. Their intelligence apparatus, created and operated separately from the CIA mangled reports on weapons capabilities, misled the public--and by some accounts the President--and made decisions about troop numbers that went against the advice of commanders in the field.

This is what I’m talking about when I talk about manipulated data. And it is very different from the data that might have helped catch a few terrorists during 9/11. That kind of data was used to prevent multiple bombings in 1999 (see Clarke’s comments above) And, I might add that kind of data might be used as we speak to track down terrorists and put them away. I’ll give Bush credit for those arrests if I heard about any. But either the arrests are classified or they haven’t happened. And I’ll send him (and the CIA, FBI, and NSA and any other agency involved) thank you notes when they do. I live in a terrorist target town and my blood, though green, might still be spilt if not for the people working behind the scenes to protect me. To them I tip my hat.

I could go on for more, but I'm boring myself! You are right, Martini time! And thanks again for posting, cheers!

7:25 PM  
coho said...

Hiya Spocko!
I enjoyed your film (even though it wasn't animated like the last one), the soundtrack made me want to break out my laser wristwatch and the helicopter that folds up into a (Halliburton, of course) suitcase.
This short film is not mine. It is also not factual (much). It is, however, an entertaining and thought provoking slightly-less-than-four-minutes (in spite of the presence of Andy Dick).
http://gprime.net/video.php/presidentialspeechalist
BTW to Martini_2olives, Bombay Sapphire is the bomb, but if you haven't tried Miller's you should go do so immediately.

7:31 AM  
Anonymous said...

Spoko, came across your blog, wanted to post a couple comments.

You'll notice I'm masking my IP.

1st intelligence reports on potential attacks are given everyday, and generally this is data aggregated from many reports the previous day. Picking the one needle out of the haystack is not impossible, but if the best minds in NSA cannot agree, then I don't see how it is reasonable to assume anyone else can.

2nd it is impossible to convince me that anyone in the U.S. government would allow terrorist attacks to happen if they could prevent them. Having worked in the defense industry (yes, the Military Industrial Complex - I'm so evil) I can tell you preventing an attack is a HUGE win for you and your team. You will make a lot of friends and money that way, and your reputation for it will make you virtually 'untouchable' in your future career. No matter how you cut it, it is in your own best interest to prevent such attacks if you are anywhere near capable (and/or expected) to do so.

3rd - and this is a mistake you are making - you are forgetting that previous to 9/11 the CIA and FBI were kept separate by law, custom, and culture. People at the CIA looked down upon the FBI and (for all practical purposes) vice-versa. This was due to the logic that follows:

If the internal and external forces of our intelligence community converge inward American freedoms and liberties will suffer.

Already that has been the result of the recent convergence; for instance many people are complaining about the provisions of the Patriot Act. Anyone who complains that the Company and the Attorney General didn't properly communicate previous to the firewall coming down certainly does not understand why it was there in the first place, doesn't accept the logic, or doesn't think civil liberties and government transparency are more important than safety from such attacks.

You are welcome to your opinions, but my prediction is eventually we will all suffer as a result of the creation of DHS. While in it's infancy it is inefficient and uncoordinated you can bet your last dollar eventually that will cease to be the case. Political dissention will most definitely be investigated, with or without official authority to do so. And if you - for whatever reason, legitimate or not - become a target no amount of guarantee of civil liberty will help you.

Lastly, I don't let people off the hook. The appropriate way to handle the threat was to use the full powers of the NSA. The NSA was not being utilized properly. The NSA has never had any transparency whatsoever, which greatly limits their accountability. The mere fact that people blame the FBI/CIA for dropping the ball indicates to me that they are or were not aware of the role of the NSA.

Thank you for your blog.

10:36 AM  

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