Calling Scientists and Mathamticians! Use your Skills! Help Save Lives!

Gina at Pet Connection did a great translation and analysis of the peer review results of the risk assessment document created by the FDA so that the USDA could give approval to Big Chicken and Big Pig to release the chickens and pigs into the human food supply.

DMS in comments makes the stunningly clear comment that I was going to make:

I think we need to keep in mind that the FDA/USDA released all of the chickens, eggs and Pigs for processing and sale before they even had their assessment peer-reviewed. Where else, but in the American government, would that happen?

Comment by DMS — June 13, 2007 @ 10:36 pm

This is at the heart of the issue. Big Chicken and Big Pig wanted a reason they could use to get the USDA to release their chicken and hogs into the human food supply. They got it. And it's not even really a test. It's a RISK ASSESSMENT. They are creating probabilities based on assumptions in lieu of hard data. And guess what? There were no mathematicians on the peer review list. Surprised? I'm not.

Calling Superstar Mathamtician, John Allen Paulos. Also known as:"Mathamtician to the Media" For my money, Paulos is the best explainer of math and stats in the business.

John Allen Paulos to the Blue Spocko Courtesy phone. John Allen Paulos to the Blue Spocko Courtesy phone.

3.5 million chickens went out because someone took recalled pet food known to kill animals and fed it to chickens. Maybe that food could be excused, it was the first batch that went to humans.

(BTW, somewhere out there a odd lots person(s) who said, "Hey, I can pick up this food for pennies and sell it for dimes. Why is it so cheap? Who cares!" Hey buddy that "food" killed thousands of pets and tens of thousands more, and now you are going to feed it to the animals I eat? Thanks a lot, jerk.)

I want some OTHER scientists to look at this and speak plainly about this (and about your peer's peer review if you don't mind.) I know that some of you have less at stake than getting the call from the FDA to do more paid (?) peer reviews, so maybe you can be a bit more... blunt. After all, it's your life this time, not just some pets.

And speaking of mathematicians like John Allen Paulos, (who is one of my favorite writers on math, the media and humor) Listen to explodinghed, another commenter at Pet Connection.

risk assessment is simply a way of appearing to make responsible decisions without actually doing that. it’s been going on in business for a very long time. this peer review was less of a whitewash than i expected it to be, but i’m not surprised that they reached the conclusion that fda’s actions were “reasonable”. i’m sure that everyone involved knew what their assignment was.

note that there are no PhD level mathematicians on this panel. not for nothing, but in more than a decade of working on biological research projects and water analysis projects, i was rather shocked to realize that in general, the scientists with whom i worked were almost uniformly terrible mathemeticians, and in many cases not even good scientists.
[snip]
Comment by explodinghed — June 14, 2007 @ 5:13 am

(btw, I'm not going to fault him or her for their spelling and capitalization, this is not a peer reviewed blog...)

So if you want to check out the risk assessment on the contaminants that that went into 23.5 million chickens and 56,000 hogs read it here. (Link)

If you then want to comment go here:
Docket: 2007N-0208 - Draft Melamine and Analogues Safety/Risk Assessment; Availabiity [sic] (link to comment form)

Finally, here is the big thing to remember. If this food is NOT safe to eat, you Can NOT avoid it even if you want to. Why? Because the FDA/USDA will NOT tell you who put these 23.5 million chickens into your food supply.

What would have happened if the peer review panel said: "This is a TERRIBLE risk assessment. This should NOT be used to justify sending 20 million chickens and 56,000 hogs into our food supply."?

Nothing. Why? Because the chicken has flown the coup. The hogs are now your bacon.

So now that the risk assessment peer review has declared it "reasonable" (by some hand picked scientists ) can they tell us the names of the chicken farms that sold the chicken to us? Why not?
What is their fear? Don't they trust their scientists? Don't they think that they are reasonable?

If they don't tell us the names of the farms and tell us WHERE the food went then we know that they don't believe their own data. But they are willing to make us the guinea pigs because their first and foremost purpose is not as stated:

FDA's Former Mission Statement

The FDA is responsible for protecting the public health by assuring the safety, efficacy, and security of human and veterinary drugs, biological products, medical devices, our nation’s food supply, cosmetics, and products that emit radiation. The FDA is also responsible for advancing the public health by helping to speed innovations that make medicines and foods more effective, safer, and more affordable; and helping the public get the accurate, science-based information they need to use medicines and foods to improve their health.

The New FDA Mission Statement?

The FDA is responsible for protecting the public health profits of corporations by assuring the safety of their food. The FDA provides the public information that the corporations deem useful for consumers to consume the foods that are being sold to them.

FDA: Chickens fed melamine tainted feed in the Human Food Supply

From the Baltimore Sun article:

38 poultry farms in Indiana received contaminated feed in February.

All broiler chickens fed the feed have been processed, and breeding birds are now under quarantine, according to the FDA and Agriculture Department. There is no evidence that eating chickens fed the feed would harm humans, so the agencies said they are not recalling any products made from the processed poultry.

WHAT THE FRAK?! Pardon my human English, but did I read this right? They have decided for us that the chickens are fine. Based on what evidence?

Have they fed some humans the products and tested them to see what happens to their kidneys? Did they decide that it's too late because people have already eaten this and nobody died?

I'd like to know if the chicken kidneys I'm eating contain the stuff that killed my cat! Then I can decide not to eat it.

The pets that were fed these products didn't die instantly. The chemical built up in their systems. Now we all know how fast they grow and kill chickens these days. They might have killed the sick chickens who didn't die yet, but were on the verge of dying. Would they even have noticed? And they will use the same "the melamine is diluted so you are safe" line that they used with the pigs.
Questions:

• Could they please show us the LEVEL of melamine in the chickens?
• Whose chicken farms were these?
• Where did the food end up?
• What are the names of the brands? What date were these shipped to stores?
• Which "products" did this go into?
• Was it in my TV dinner? Fresh chicken? Chicken Noodle Soup?
  

Let me decide to take the risk. I might disagree with your analysis of the risk, but I can't chose not to eat it if I don't know what is in what I'm eating.

Live Long and Prosper is my line, with this I might have trouble!

Spocko

Years of tainted Pet Food from China

NY Time and Reuters have now reported that melamine, used to make plastic, has been added to grains and gluten by some Chinese companies to boost the real protein content of pet food. This has been happening FOR YEARS.

What now?

Reply to all Forward Print Add Kim to Contacts list Delete this message Report phishing Show original Message text garbled?

I have 5 cats that died since 2000 that I am convinced got sick from food, (with a little help from vaccines tossed in for bad measure)

How will we know when our job is done?
-Kim of Petfoodtracker

(Kim along with Ben of Itchmo, Nikki of Howl911, Theresa of PetsitUSA and of course Gina and Christine of Petconnection are the brilliant bloggers tracking this pet food recall crisis, go there and read, and donate too!)

I'll give some advice to the pet food companies on what to do next. (Will they listen to a Brain in a Box? I doubt it, but I have to try.)


1) Stop treating this like a recall of a defective product. This is food that kills living things. Not a product whose malfunction causes an inconvenience. This is not Dell recalling batteries. Think Johnson and Johnson recalling Tylenol. That is your shorthand message. Learn it. Live it. Love it.

2) Listen to your real customers, people with pets. People tell you that, but I know many CEOs DON'T know what their real end users really think. Who do CEOs see as their customer? Wall Street analysts, the board of directors and the major retailers. But they are not the ones whose "fur kids" are dying. Pet parents, as many call themselves, won't just down grade your stock. They want you in jail. You killed their fur kid, they will tell EVERYONE they know, until they trust you again...if ever.

3) Do the hard thing that will restore trust for the end user. The Tylenol story is bandied about as the gold standard of the right way to do things. J&J focused on restoring trust to the end user, based on their corporate value of safety, not "how to I keep the big retailers who buy truckloads happy?"

Don't think, "How do I minimize this for Wall Street so that the quarterlies will look good after the 25 million dollar write down for the recall.' Think, 'What will it take to convince the end user, whose pet is dead, to buy my food again?" When you answer THAT question then you will know what to do.

Companies ask, "What are blogs good for? " Most companies want to push to bloggers, to sell them stuff. They ask, "How do I get them to write good stuff about my products?"
Wrong question. Ask, "What are they saying about my company and product?" READ them for customer attitudes instead of figuring out how to sell stuff to people with blogs. What would you learn? Just how PISSED people are and, since your customers are smart, what they want you to do before they trust you again.

4) Bring in third party trusted testers. Not just "inspectors", TESTERS. People who actually analyze food. Then need to be independently funded and above reproach. Test EVERYTHING. Give them veto power over everything that goes into the food. For manufacturers the phase you are afraid of but you need? "They can stop the line."

5) Open up your records. Where does it comes from, what's in it? The cat's out of the bag (and he's not eating your food!) People now know about the Chinese connection, but do they know about the other dirty little secrets like rendering plants and what THEY put in the food? Dead, diseased, dying and down cattle are not good things to put in any food.
Now is the time to do this, or just wait until the mad cow strikes again, your choice.

6) Spend more on labeling than on marketing for 6 months.

7) Demand more of the FDA and the USDA and government regulators. Instead of screaming, "We can regulate ourselves!" Admit you have done a crummy job and say, "Please FDA, inspect us MORE. Here is MORE and FASTER access to our information. And here is the information about our suppliers. Here are our databases. This is NOT proprietary any more, you don't have to beg us for paperwork anymore." (I'm looking at you ConAgra).

8) Really communicate with your end users. The CEO and operations person should be on the phone talking to the folks whose pets have died. What do THEY want? What will it take to make they trust you again? If your communications people told you to do this and you didn't, listen to them now. If they didn't, get someone who understands how to keep your end users happy.

Lots of lawyers might have tried to help you minimize this. That ship has sailed, you need to go big with your story and THEN it will be minimized, but as we see from politics, it's often the attempts to cover up and down play a crisis that just makes it bigger.

I don't expect any companies to listen to or follow any of this advice. Why? Because right now they are listening to the "experts". The experts you need to hear from first are the people whose pets are sick or dead. Then trust your gut, if you have a heart you'll know what really needs to be done.

We hear you say, "We have pets too." But we don't hear what you would do if this happened to YOUR pet. What could you do to make your dead dog proud of you again? What would your dog, who you fed tainted food, ask of you to make it stop, so it never happened again? Your dog can't talk to you, but their guardians can. The parents of "fur kids" can tell you want they need.

What do I think? The company that goes big and demands testing, and welcomes regulation and opens up their books, will "win" this crisis. Everyone else might survive, but they will never come out of this like Johnson and Johnson did.

Who do you want to be like Mr. Pet Food CEO and Mr. Pet Food Brand Manager? Union Carbide after Bhopal or Johnson and Johnson after Tylenol? The choice is yours.

IHT Article: "Feed sellers in China routinely use protein substitute" Pulled?

For some reason the article below about melamime routinely being added to animal feed in China disappeared. I wrote them a letter to find out why. I'd call, but it's 5:00 AM in Hong Kong. Probably just a technical glitch because of heavy traffic. Just to help them out I've replicated the entire article below. Once they get more capacity up I'll snip it and link to it (don't want to violate any copyrights!)

April 29, 2:45 pm PDT, San Francisco

Press Relations, Asia/Pacific
International Herald Tribune
May-Ling Nam
1201 K Wah Centre
191 Java Road, North Point
Hong Kong

Press Relations, U.S.
Diane C McNulty
229 West 43rd Street
New York
NY 10036-3959
USA

Dear Ms. McNulty and Ms. Nam:

The article titled "Feed sellers in China routinely use protein substitute"

Is currently unavailable on your website.

By David Barboza and Alexei Barrionuevo
Published: April 29, 2007

Story at url:

http://www.iht.com/articles/2007/04/29/news/food.php?page=1
and http://www.iht.com/articles/2007/04/29/news/food.php?page=2

This has disappeared from the International Herald Tribune website as of 1:45 pm Pacific Daylight time in San Francisco. As of 2:45 pm PDT it is still off line. I have spoken to several colleagues around the United States and it is unavailable for them as well. This does not appear to be an isolated problem in my region.

Is there a problem with the story that is being corrected? Is there another source of this important story? There are many people that are very interested in a story about contaminated food being sold to the United States.

Please advise,
Sincerely,
Mr. Spocko

www.spockosbrain.com

For your identification purposes below is the text of the article:
Feed sellers in China routinely use protein substitute

The Shandong Mingshui Great Chemical factory in Zhangqiu, Shandong Province, which manufactures urea, melamine and melamine scrap (Ariana Lindquist for The New York Times)

By David Barboza and Alexei Barrionuevo
Published: April 29, 2007

ZHANGQIU, China: American food safety regulators trying to figure out how an industrial chemical called melamine contaminated so much pet food in the United States might come to this heavily polluted city in Shandong Province in the northern part of the country.

Here at the Shandong Mingshui Great Chemical Group factory, huge boiler vats are turning coal into melamine, which is used to create plastics and fertilizer.

But the leftover melamine scrap, small acorn-sized chunks of white rock, is then being sold to local entrepreneurs, who say they secretly mix a powdered form of the scrap into animal feed to artificially enhance the protein level.

The melamine powder has been dubbed "fake protein" and is used to deceive those who raise animals into thinking they are buying feed that provides higher nutrition value.

"It just saves money," says a manager at an animal feed factory here. "Melamine scrap is added to animal feed to boost the protein level."

The practice is widespread in China. For years animal feed sellers have been able to cheat buyers by blending the powder into feed with little regulatory supervision, according to interviews with melamine scrap traders and agricultural workers here.

But now, melamine is at the center of a massive, multinational pet food recall after it was linked earlier this month to the deaths and injuries of thousands of cats and dogs in the United States and South Africa.

No one knows exactly how melamine - which had not been believed to be particularly toxic - became so fatal in pet food, but its presence in any form of American food is illegal.

U.S. regulators are now headed to China to figure out why pet food ingredients imported from here, including wheat gluten, were contaminated with high levels of the chemical.

The U.S. Food and Drug Administration has banned imports of wheat gluten from China and ordered the recall of over 60 million packages of pet food. And last week, the agency opened a criminal investigation in the case and searched the offices of at least one pet food supplier.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture also stepped in Thursday, ordering more than 6,000 hogs to be quarantined or slaughtered after some of the pet food ingredients laced with melamine were accidentally sent to hog farms in eight states, including California.

Scientists are now trying to determine whether melamine could be harmful to human health.

The huge pet food recall is raising questions in the United States about regulatory controls at a time when food supplies are increasingly being sourced globally. Some experts complain that the FDA is understaffed and underfunded, making it incapable of safeguarding America's food supply.

"They have fewer people inspecting product at the ports than ever before," says Caroline Smith DeWaal, director of food safety for the Center for Science in the Public Interest in Washington. "Until China gets programs in place to verify the safety of their products, they need to be inspected by U.S. inspectors. This open-door policy on food ingredients is an open invitation for an attack on the food supply, either intentional or unintentional."

The pet food case is also putting China's agricultural exports under greater scrutiny because the country's dubious food safety record and history of excessive antibiotic and pesticide use.

In recent years, for instance, China's food safety scandals have involved everything from fake baby milk formulas and soy sauce made from human hair, to instances where cuttlefish were soaked in calligraphy ink to improve their color and eels were fed contraceptive pills to make them grow long and slim.

China's government disputes any suggestion that melamine from the country could have killed pets. But Friday, regulators here banned the use of melamine in vegetable proteins made for export or for use in domestic food supplies.

Yet it is clear from visiting this region of northern China is that for years melamine has been quietly mixed into Chinese animal feed and then sold to unsuspecting farmers as protein-rich pig, poultry and fish feed.

Many animal feed operators advertise on the Internet seeking to purchase melamine scrap. And melamine scrap producers and traders said in recent interviews that they often sell to animal feed makers.

"Many companies buy melamine scrap to make animal feed, such as fish feed," says Ji Denghui, general manager of the Fujian Sanming Dinghui Chemical Company. "I don't know if there's a regulation on it. Probably not. No law or regulation says 'don't do it,' so everyone's doing it. The laws in China are like that, aren't they? If there's no accident, there won't be any regulation."

(Page 2 of 2)

Most local feed companies do not admit that they use melamine. But last Friday here in Zhangqiu, a fast-growing industrial city southeast of Beijing, a pair of animal feed producers explained in great detail how they purchase low-grade wheat, corn, soybean or other proteins and then mix in small portions of nitrogen-rich melamine, whose chemical properties give a bag of animal feed an inflated protein level under standard tests.

Melamine is the new scam of choice, they say, because urea - another nitrogen-rich chemical that works similarly - is illegal for use in pig and poultry feed and can be easily tested for in China as well as the United States.

"If you add it in small quantities, it won't hurt the animals," said one animal feed entrepreneur whose name is being withheld to protect him from prosecution.

The man - who works in a small animal feed operation that consists of a handful of storage and mixing areas - said he has mixed melamine into animal feed for years.

He said he was not currently using melamine, which is actually made from urea. But he then pulled out a plastic bag containing what he said was melamine powder and said he could dye it any color.

Asked whether he could create an animal feed and melamine brew, he said yes, he has access to huge supplies of melamine. Using melamine-spiked pet food ingredient was not a problem, he said, even thought the product would be weak in protein.

"Pets are not like pigs or chickens," he said casually, explaining that cheating them on protein won't matter. "They don't need to grow fast."

The feed seller makes a heftier profit because the substitute melamine scrap is much cheaper than purchasing soy, wheat or corn protein.

"It's true you can make a lot more profit by putting melamine in," said a second animal feed seller here in Zhangqiu. "Melamine will cost you about $1.20 per ton for each protein count whereas real protein costs you about $6, so you can see the difference."

Few people outside of agriculture know about melamine here. The Chinese media, which is strictly censored, has not reported much about melamine or the pet food recall overseas. And no one in agriculture here seems to believe that melamine is particularly harmful to animals or pets in small doses.

A man named Jing, who works in the sales department at the Shandong Mingshui Great Chemical Group, said Friday that melamine scrap prices had been rising but he was not aware of how the company's product was being used.

"We have an auction for melamine scrap every three months," he said. "I haven't heard of it being added to animal feed. It's not for animal feed."

David Barboza reported from Zhangqiu and Alexei Barrionuevo reported from Chicago. Rujun Shen also contributed reporting.

Q. Can the FDA recall Food? A. No.*

Windows media Video of GAO superstar Lisa Shames speaking about FDA. Link about 7 minutes

Q. Can the FDA recall food? A. No. (*with the exception of baby formula)

The FDA can not make mandatory recalls for food tainted with bad wheat, rice or corn gluten. They can't issue a recall for HUMAN food folks. NOT just pet food. I've been asking people this question lately and most are surprised to find out this simple piece of information.

So if you hear a story about this bad gluten getting into the human food chain AND that gluten is put into a product shipped to a store near you, remember, the company has to voluntarily issue a recall, the company has NO deadline to issue information to the public (or the FDA for that matter) in a timely fashion.

Now most companies are smart enough to do the right thing, but if they delay, dither and withhold information there are no penalties.

Friday Cat Blogging

The first time I got in the New York Times (October 28, 2004) was for my "Friday Cat Blogging". I made a joke that since all the political bloggers talk about cats on Friday and showed their photos, here was mine. And I put up a photo of a giant "Cat" bulldozer.

I can't joke about this current pet food recall debacle that is leading to the death of thousands of cats and dogs.
Unoffical count Update 4/6, 6:30 a.m. PT: 3,242 pets have been reported as deceased to our PetConnection database.

And for John who said...

I'd like to see your source on that 3000+ dead pets, the most I've seen on "reputable" websites is ~250, that's a whole order of magnitude off from your numbers. I think the companies should come clean, but I also don't think anyone should be inflating numbers just to get a response.

What is "reputable" to you? Menu Foods? The FDA? Who have been saying only 16 dead for weeks past the date that they KNEW it was higher?

The point is that their is no coordinated national database for pet deaths. There is no CDC for animals tracking and correlating this.

The current reporting systems and connections are weak or non-existent for this kind of work. PetConnection put their database together to fill a void. And I ask you "John" (if that is your real name) who are you posting for? Is it really accurate info you care about? Or are you more interested in downplaying this issue?

I KNOW the people at PetConnection would LOVE to have official accurate numbers. The MSM still wants to quote the "experts" even if the experts have been holding and underreporting for WEEKS. We would LOVE and official count from an official organization. But guess what, some of the officials aren't doing the job that needs to be done. So, in the fine American Tradition and of good bloggers everywhere, PetConnection built their own database.

We also have the folks from Itchmo, Howl911, PetfoodTracker and others replicating the recall info and digging up more links in this story. They might not be "offical" but THEY are the experts now. Because they have done the work. And, they are thinking of the pet safety first, not how to sooth investors or sponsors.

If you have to see the photos and autopsies of the 3,000 plus dead pets until you believe this is real, well that might take some time and in the meantime pets are dying. Can you grasp WHY it is important to get the SCOPE of this out there?

Do you want to see one dead pet John? How about Alex? This is from and unofficial website called Menu Foods Victims. I don't know how "reputable" they are. Maybe they just made up this story to "get a response" but I doubt it. Look at the pretty cat. Read the painful words. Then ask yourself, how responsible were the people who DID NOT reveal the scope of this story for weeks?

US Importer ChemNutra refuses to name buyers of contaminated wheat gluten

AP reporter Andrew Bridges has been doing some great digging on this tainted pet food story. But in the rush to assure people it's not in the human supply they missed that the critical point. IT IS in the PET Supply.

Where? They STILL WON'T TELL US. They don't trust us. Now, note this headline supplied.

Importer: No contaminated wheat gluten in human food supply
-AP headline

Why wasn't it THIS headline?
US Importer refuses to name buyers of contaminated wheat gluten

03:18 PM EDT on Tuesday, April 3, 2007

By ANDREW BRIDGES / Associated Press Writer

WASHINGTON (AP) -- None of the contaminated wheat gluten that led to the U.S. recall of pet food went to manufacturers of food for humans, the ingredient’s importer said Tuesday.

The Chinese wheat gluten imported by ChemNutra Inc. all went to companies that make pet foods, Stephen Miller, chief executive officer of the Las Vegas company, told The Associated Press.

Miller declined to identify what companies ChemNutra supplied. Nearly 100 brands of cat and dog foods made with the ingredient, since found to be chemically contaminated, have been recalled.

(Copyright 2007 by The Associated Press. All Rights Reserved.)

APTV-04-03-07 1514EDT

Emphasis mine.

Now I suppose Steve Miller doesn't have an OBLIGATION to tell the public who bought this, but the question is, was Mr. Miller working overtime to reach EACH and every one of the companies that bought this wheat Gluten so they would be able to recall and test their food?
Do you suppose WE should get a list too? Or can't the public be trusted? What obligation do they have to us? Is ChemNutra the ONLY importer? What about the other company that Xuzhou Anying said that they sold to? Who did THEY sell to in the US? In the Netherlands? Elsewhere?

Why didn't the FDA tell us this companies name days ago? My guess they were protecting them so that they could get their ducks in a row for the media. How many pets have to die?

Note that the DHS crisis person is in charge, okay they have gotten their message out, according to THEM this isn't in the human food. Could you please prove it to me? Give me a list of where it came from and who bought it. I'll bet since it says names like Del Monte someone put pressure on them to not release it. On the other hand maybe their was NO pressure at all?
Why didn't he release that info? Could he please explain WHY this was released? Who told him not to release the names? FDA? DHS? Someone else?

Today the someone at CBS wanted to figure out if any Muslims were involved in the tainted wheat! Why did that do that? Because there was no good information and in the absence of info they are going to run with scary rumors.

Pet Food Recall: Unofficial death toll 2,907

Itchmo has done a great overview Fact sheet and time line of the Tainted Pet Food Crisis
(link) I thought I'd mirror part of it here to get this info out there to help the press. I do hope that they start reporting on unofficial death toll of 2,907.

Update: 4-2-2007 10:06 pm pdt. Since Itchmo's blog went down briefly and I wanted to make sure the media and others could have access to his (her?) great work. Therefore I've mirrored the entire timeline below.

Undercounting STILL going on at Fox
Dar, posting at Pet Connection said that "Gretta" at Fox was still reporting that"there were only 14 total deceased from the poison. 1 Dog and 13 Cat." This was posted 4/2/2007 at 09:06 PDT

Yes, sometime pets die of other things, but to keep reporting only 14 deaths is not paying attention. Pet food companies have EVERY reason to UNDER report. And the FDA report will take time to complete. Even the Petconnection self report could be under reporting, it requires people to be online. How many don't have computers and aren't putting their info into a database? I expect the media to qualify the numbers but please don't ignore them. People notice when their kitty or puppy die. These aren't defective laptop batteries to be replaced folks. These pets MATTER. Pay attention.

Menu Foods Recall Overview and Time line

On March 16, Menu Foods, a wet foods producer of private-label pet foods based in Canada, announced the recall of 60 million cans and pouches of its meat-in-gravy products for cats and dogs across more than 90 brands – the largest pet food recall in US history.

This Fact Sheet summarizes the events leading up to the recall as well as its aftermath and vital facts regarding the tragic incident that affected 1% of the US pet food supply. Thousands of illnesses and deaths were reported by pet parents. To date the exact death toll is unknown, and it most likely will never be known.

Who is Menu Foods? / Official Company Site

This page constructs the timeline of events from media and government reports based on the available data we can find.

Unofficial Death Toll	Official Death Toll
2,907	16
Cats: 56%	Cats: 93.75%
Dogs: 43%	Dogs: 6.25%
Source: PetConnection Data as of 4/2/07, 7:35 a.m.. PT)	Source: FDA/Menu Foods

Cause of Death

Acute Renal Failure (ARF) from the ingestion of aminopterin and/or melamine (most likely the latter). The prime suspect of contamination is wheat gluten imported from China.

What is ARF? / What is aminopterin? / What is melamine?

Mortality Rate

Menu Foods feeding trial mortality rate is approximately 17%. Real-world mortality rate is unknown.

Timeline

• December 6, 2006:
  • Menu Foods switches gluten suppliers (to a Chinese company) through a broker based in Kansas.
• Late December, 2006:
  • Menu Foods may have started receiving complaints that its food is making some pets sick.
• February 20, 2007:
  • Menu Foods receives the first of 6 customer reports that its food is making pets sick.
• February 27, 2007:
  • As a part of its quarterly feeding trials, Menu Foods feeds their product to 40-50 cats and dogs.
• March 2, 2007:
  • The first of 9 animals in Menu Foods feeding trial dies of acute renal failure. Mortality rate is quoted at 1 in 6.
• March 6, 2007:
  • Menu Foods switches its supply of wheat gluten due to lab animal deaths.
  • Kansas plant continues to operate.

  March 13, 14 or 15, 2007:

  • Prior to the recall, Cornell receives samples for testing from Menu Foods. (Note: Date conflicts AP report)
  • NY State Food Laboratory receives samples for testing.
• March 16, 2007:
  • Menu Foods announces its recall of 60 million containers of food related to the deaths of lab animals.
  • Media does not report these as lab-based deaths nor do they report the mortality rate.
  • Menu Foods’ Web site is taken down and cannot be accessed.
  • Menu Foods stock MEW.UN drops 45% by the close of trading day.
  • Menu Foods estimate the recall costs at US$25-$34 million.
• March 17, 2007:
  • Menu Foods posts its first recall list in the morning.
  • Links to the remainder of the original site is removed from view.
  • Consumers report encountering busy signals for their toll-free numbers. Those who do get through report that agents are taking messages for Menu Foods and checking products purchased against the recall list.
• March 18, 2007:
  • Itchmo analysis indicates possible ARF in 74,000 pets.
• March 19, 2007:
  • Menu Foods announces their enhanced Web site and customer service capabilities.
  • Callers report no change in their ability to access the hotlines.
  • Menu Foods recall list is changed. 6 brands are added and 1 is removed from the recall list.
  • Class action lawsuit group is formed on Yahoo.
  • FDA announces that the 60 million recalls packages amount to 1% of the US pet food supply.
• March 20, 2007:
  • PetConnection.com’s self-reporting database (for pet owners affected by Menu Foods) gathers 241 reports of deaths.
  • FDA announces that the 9 reported deaths only include those from the Menu Foods feeding trial.
  • 2 brands are added to the recall list. Canadian brands appear on the recalled brands list.
  • Official death toll is revised to 14 including 1 dog and 13 cats. This is the first official death toll that includes pets not included in the Menu Foods quarterly feeding trial.
• March 21, 2007:
  • First lawsuits are filed in Chicago and Knoxville, TN.
  • PetConnection’s self-reported database logs more than 500 deaths.
  • Pet Food Accountability Petition is launched on itchmo.com.
• March 22, 2007:
  • PetConnection’s self-reported database logs 845 deaths by the end of the day.
  • Analyst and veterinarian estimates of deaths hit “thousands”.
• March 23, 2007:
  • First class-action lawsuit against Menu Foods is filed by a Seattle attorney and an Oregon family.
  • The substance aminopterin is found in the recalled foods.
  • The suspected wheat gluten is imported from China.
  • A press-conference is held by Menu Foods and the USDA.
  • PetConnection’s self-reported database logs more than 1,000 deaths.
  • Menu Foods announces that it will compensate expenses associated with its tainted food.
  • Menu Foods announces that its Kansas plant will shut down for 2-3 days to realign its production mix.
  • Menu Foods stock rises 25%.
• March 24, 2007:
  • PetConnection reports 1,541 deaths.
  • Menu Foods asks retailers to remove entire brands, not just specific UPC codes. Pet parents debate whether to believe Menu Foods categorization that it is not an expansion of the recall.

  March 26, 2007:

  • An email describing the details of the Menu Foods feeding trial and its outcomes are published by the Sacramento Bee. Vets suspect long-term affects and shortened lifespans for sickened pets.
  • PetConnection’s database logs 1,871 deaths.
  • New Jersey plant has been confirmed under investigation, yet remains open.
  • Cornell reports to the FDA that they found melamine, but no aminopterin.

  March 27, 2007:

  • Media reports (including the AP) begin to quote the Veterinary Information Network’s count of 471 sick and 104 dead.
  • Congressional leaders request information from the FDA and Menu Foods.
  • Menu Foods recall costs are estimated to exceed original numbers by the millions. And litigation risk is downplayed.
  • ASPCA says that aminopterin may not be the only toxin.
  • Menu Foods stock (MEW.UN) closes at 4.10.
  • Cornell again reports to the FDA that they found melamine, but no aminopterin.

  March 28, 2007:

  • Scientific American summarizes the toxin search as well as the timing of events.
  • Catmanager notes state by state veterinary agency reaction.
  • Canadian vets begin tracking deaths and illnesses.
  • PetConnection update: 2,237 deceased pets (1,257 cats, 980 dogs)
  • NBC Nightly News reports on increased count.

  March 30, 2007:

  • Petconnection.com reports in the morning: 2,447 deaths (1,327 cats; 1080 dogs)
  • Cornell and FDA announces that melamine was found in the food supply and tissue samples. They also said that aminopterin was not found.
  • They also announce that dry food may also be contaminated, but will not name the other manufacturer who used the wheat gluten from the same source.
  • Menu Foods holds a press conference, disputing or side stepping questions about their delayed response. Press release is also issued.
  • Hills recalls one dry cat food product within hours of the FDA statement — 2 weeks after the initial recall.
  • Purina releases a late-night recall message for its ALPO brand wet food not made by Menu Foods, but made using the same supply of wheat gluten.
  • FDA prohibits import of wheat gluten from Xuzhou Anying Biologic Technology Development Company Ltd. through an import warning. The US broker who imported the wheat gluten is not named.

  March 31, 2007:

  • Itchmo discovers that Menu Foods has removed the hidden Web site information that was unlinked when the original recall was announced.
  • Del Monte announces recall of wet food and treats due to the use of the same wheat gluten. Affected brands are: Ol’Roy, Jerky Treats, Gravy Train Beef Sticks, Pounce Meaty Morsels, Dollar General, and Happy Tails.
  • Pet Connection database: (3/31 8:45 p.m. PT): 2,797 deceased pets (1,546 cats and 1,251 dogs)
  • AP reports much higher incidences of cat deaths. And quotes the FDA as saying “there was a sizable amount of melamine. You could see crystals in the wheat gluten.”

  April 1, 2007:

  • Blogs find the FDA import warning against the Chinese supplier. Traditional media picks up the news.
  • Del Monte confirms that the imported wheat gluten was marked available for human consumption.
  • FDA notes that the melamine particles were visible in the wheat gluten in concentrations as high as 6.6%.
  • Senator Durbin (D-IL) and Rep. DeLauro (D-CT) issue a statement asking for better food protection and criticizes the FDA.

April 2, 2007

• China denies role in pet food recall Story by USA Today reporters Anita Manning and Calum MacLeod, and Elizabeth Weise in San Francisco. However, the Chinese report focused on aminopterin, the rat poison initially found in a sample of the recalled pet food by a New York state laboratory. Since that report last week, the FDA has cited melamine as the source of the problem.
  (Spocko note: Quoted in this story are Neal Bataller at the FDA's Center for Veterinary Medicine, FDA's enforcement director David Elder, FDA Commissioner Andrew von Eschenbach, and Ellen Morrison, director of the FDA's Office of Crisis Management. (out of Home Land Security)